Varied Decembers: exploring Gunflint Lake and Grand Portage snowfall and temperature records

December of 2023 looked and felt much different than December of 2022 in Cook County and across much of northern Minnesota. 

In December 2022, many locations in Cook County, such as Gunflint Lake and Grand Marais, surpassed historical snowfall and precipitation records. Gunflint Lake received 27.9 inches of accumulated snowfall in December 2022, beating the 1977 record of 26.9 inches.

December of 2023 was a different story. Gunflint Lake and Grand Portage neared historical records for lack of snowfall and set records for the warmest recorded temperature in December. 

According to the National Weather Service, Gunflint Lake received 2.6 inches last month. Farther east, the Grand Portage ranger station recorded a total of .5 inches of snowfall. 

“Absolutely remarkable,” said Joe Moore, the warning coordination meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, based in Duluth. “We usually see about 12 to 15 inches of snow in the month of December.” 

According to National Weather Service data, the December mean snowfall accumulation for the past 40 years in Grand Portage is 14 inches. Moore said the minimal snowfall accumulation in Grand Portage was close to beating a nearly 20-year-old record. In December 2002, the Grand Portage ranger station recorded a total of .4 inches of snowfall. 

In addition to the lack of snow, much of northern Minnesota encountered warmer temperatures throughout the month of November and December. “December was remarkably warm. Pretty much record warm across many sites in northeast Minnesota,” Moore said. Duluth experienced its warmest December on record since 1950. 

The Grand Portage station recorded its lowest December temperature of 6 degrees.

“That is the warmest lowest temperature in the month of December that they’ve had ever on record,” Moore said. “Usually, you get to below zero in the month of December.” According to the National Weather Service data, -14 is the mean temperature for Grand Portage in December. 

In December, Grand Marais’ lowest recorded temperature was 10 degrees. Farther inland, Gunflint Lake recorded the warmest temperature of zero degrees in December, the warmest temperature ever recorded. 

The warmer conditions and lack of snowfall are partially attributable to El Nino, Moore said. “It’s important to recognize that El Nino and La Nina can only explain, I would say, anywhere between 20 and 40 percent of what our weather in the winter is actually like.”

El Nino is characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The warming event typically occurs every two to seven years and has wide-ranging impacts on weather patterns across the globe and in northern Minnesota.

“It does really impact us here in North America,” Moore said. El Nino tends to be more prevalent in the winter months, Moore said, because the arctic air is a lot weaker. “The influences are mainly in the wintertime for us in the northern latitudes.”

While Moore said there is a significant amount of variability, “El Nino does have a very, very strong linkage to well above normal temperatures.”

Given the lack of snowfall and warmer conditions at the start of the 2023-24 winter, Moore said residents of Cook County and northern Minnesota should continue to expect warmer conditions and minimal snowfall for the remainder of the winter. 

Moore said the recent and ongoing mid-January cold snap with negative temperatures is temporary, and meteorologists expect temperatures to warm soon. “It does look like this pattern kind of gets back to a more typical El Nino pattern in the next couple of weeks as we go into February and March.”

Moore said the weather pattern will be variable come spring, but residents should expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation levels. 

WTIP’s Kalli Hawkins spoke with Joe Moore, the warning coordination meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, based in Duluth, for an in-depth look at December snowfall and temperature data for Cook County and northern Minnesota. The audio from the interview is below. 

Kalli Hawkins January 20, 2024