El Niño points to a warmer winter outlook for northern Minnesota

A very strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is expected to influence weather patterns across the United States this winter, with warmer-than-average temperatures favored across the northern states, including Minnesota.

For northern Minnesota and areas across the Superior National Forest, the National Weather Service is forecasting a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures and a slight chance of below-normal precipitation.

El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warmer than normal water temperatures in a large area of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Those changes can influence the jet stream, which helps shape weather patterns across North America.

For Minnesota’s Arrowhead region, the three-month outlook from December to February gives a 50% to 60% chance of above-normal temperatures, said Ketzel Levens, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth.

Levens said that doesn’t mean that it’s “a 50-50 chance that it goes either way.”

Instead, the percentages are based on outlooks or projections across three categories: above normal, below normal, or near normal. And based on the data the researchers are gathering, there is a “pretty good signal for on average above normal temperatures through that three-month period,” she said.

The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. (Image credit: NOAA)

As for how El Niño may influence snowfall and precipitation across northern Minnesota this winter, data indicate a 33% to 40% likelihood of below-normal precipitation, suggesting a slight tendency toward drier conditions.

“El Niño has been known to be on the warmer and drier side for our area, and so that’s kind of what our winter outlook is looking like this year,” said Levens.

The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southwest, South and East Coast. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes, and central Alaska. (Image credit: NOAA)

What that means for snowfall and the northern Minnesota winter recreation season, however, remains a little less certain.

“It’s a forecast. It’s not completely guaranteed by any means,” Levens said, noting that other atmospheric patterns will also influence weather as the season progresses.

Levens said northeastern Minnesota will still see typical cold winter conditions, but that there may be more “freeze-thaw” occurrences, or stretches without much snow or precipitation.

While the term “Super El Niño” has been circulating among news outlets ahead of this winter, Levens said it is not a technical term used within the National Weather Service. Instead, meteorologists categorize El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong.

Levens said forecasts suggest the developing El Niño could be one of the stronger events observed in recent decades.

“There’s an over 80% chance that this is a historically strong El Niño,” Levens said. “So we’re kind of in unprecedented territory a little bit here, which of course gives additional uncertainty to any kind of forecasts and outlooks at this time period.”

What past El Niño winters tell us

Since 1950, Minnesota’s 27 El Niño winters have averaged 2.4 degrees F warmer statewide than winters without El Niño, according to data from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

Seasonal snowfall in the Twin Cities has averaged nearly 14 inches less during El Niño winters, although that trend does not necessarily translate to the same conditions along the North Shore.

Although El Niño often brings warmer, drier winter conditions, it does not rule out significant snowfall events, which have occurred during past El Niño winters.

The Halloween Blizzard of 1991 occurred during a very strong El Niño and was followed by additional heavy snowstorms, making November the snowiest month on record across several areas of Minnesota, according to the DNR.

Less snow could mean a different winter tourism season

For many businesses across Cook County and the North Shore, less snowfall directly affects how many visitors travel to the region for winter recreation like snowmobiling, cross-country skiing, or other activities.

Lodges, restaurants, and other businesses that rely on winter tourism could feel the effects of a shorter or less consistent snow season this year.

A less favorable winter recreation season also comes as many Cook County businesses are still working to recover from financial losses sustained over the summer. Wildfire-related closures, evacuations, and smoke affected tourism and business activity across the region in July and August. A winter with less snow could add another layer of uncertainty for businesses that depend on seasonal visitors.

WTIP’s CJ Heithoff spoke with Ketzel Levens, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth, about El Niño and what northern Minnesota residents can expect this winter. Audio below.

Kalli Hawkins November 7, 2026